Value Bet - how to find value bets and EV+?
Finding a Value Bet at bookmakers is like finding money on the floor : it is rare, but when it happens it is profit in the right!
This is one of the most basic and most important concepts for every bettor who wants to succeed in the sports betting sites.
And attached to it is the positive expected value , the famous EV+!
In this article, we will explain what these two concepts are. After this reading it will be much easier for you to bet more successfully!
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What are value bets?
The concept is quite simple:
They are bets with higher odds than they are really worth.
But what do you mean? 🤔
See the example:
- A bookmaker says the chance of an outcome occurring is 40%
- But the bettor calculated that the real probability of it happening is 60%
In this case, the odd of the result should be less than that determined by the House.
The higher the probability, the lower the value of the odd!
So if odd is overvalued, we come to the following conclusions:
-
The chance of the result occurring is greater than that represented by the odd
-
The potential profit on top of that odd is higher than it should be
-
This sets up a Value Bet
How to find value bets?
Translating to odds, let's say Flamengo plays Bahia for New Zealander .
With your prediction, you calculate that Mengão has an 80% chance of winning. Think that would give an odd of 1,80 .
You note, however, that the bookmaker put an odd of 2,20 to the victory of Flamengo.
You have a value bet as the odd is higher than what you think is fair.
Since the bookmaker is decreasing Flamengo's chances of winning, you can benefit from it!
The mission of every bettor, therefore, is always to find value bets, as the chances of profiting increase!
But how to find the value bets? For this, you need to study hard and know how to price your bets.
There are several techniques and courses to help finding the value bets . An example is the course of sports trader , Danilo Pereira, who explores the theme in depth.
Another important point to consider is whether the bet will be placed pre-match or live.
If you choose to pre-match betting , keep in mind that you will be looking for the mistakes of the bookmakers. That is, it will look for higher odds than you consider fair.
Now, if the goal is to do live betting and to find value in them, you need to stay much more connected in the match.
Keep track of any swings in the game that are going off the charts, as this will reflect on the odds.
Finally, there are markets that are more likely to find value bets. Are they:
- Corner Market
- Under / Over Goal market
- Handicap
Keep in mind, however, that finding value bets takes time, as does utilizing the technique of arbitration in betting .
Finally, value bets and positive expected value , although related, are not the same thing!
A value bet is a bet whose odd reflects a probability higher than the true probability of the event.
So the more value bets you can successfully place, the higher your positive expected value as a bettor!
Positive expected value: what is it?
Unfortunately, not every bet is a Value Bet. Many, in fact, will yield a negative result. Others yield a null result.
Therefore, we divide the expected value of a bet into 3 types:
- Negative expected value
- Positive expected value
- Expected value null
When a bet has a negative expected value , means that in the long run you will have prejudice in the betting.
If you identify that your bets in a medium or long term can pay off more profit than loss , then, is in front of a positive expected value .
If the EV for null , there is neither loss nor profit, since there is no return nor financial losses.
Therefore, we can understand the expected value from a bet like:
The amount a player can lose or win if they bet on odds of the same amount in a row.
How to calculate the expected value?
When you understand what value bets are, you can learn how to calculate how much a bet is worth to you or not.
How important is that?
In this way, you can check if it is worth betting on a certain event or if it is better to look for another bet to make.
To calculate the expected value, it is enough to use a very simple equation:
(Probability of winning) x (Total won per bet) – (probability of losing) x (Total lost per bet)
For the avoidance of doubt, let's look at a practical example.
We use the win/draw/win market from the match between Napoli and Liverpool. Let's look at the odds below:
- Napoli: 3,10
- Draw: 3,50
- Liverpool: 2,25
You want to bet $50 Napoli's win. Your total win on this bet would be $155 .
At an odd of 3.10 this means that, from the perspective of this site, the probability of this result happening would be 32,2% or 0,322 - this number is obtained by dividing 1 by odd.
We would thus have the first part of the equation:
(0.322 x 155) - (probability of losing) x (Total lost per bet)
To know the probability of Napoli not winning, just add probabilidde of Liverpool's victory (0,444) the draw (0,285) .
That is: 0,444 + 0,285 = 0,729 .
The total lost per bet is the amount wagered: in this case, $50.
Have:
(0.322 x $ 155)- – 0.729 x $ 50) = 49,91 – 36,45 = +13,46
Doing the above calculations, we came to the conclusion that you would have a positive expected value of 13.46 if you bet on Napoli winning.
This means that for every $50 invested in similar bets, you would win $ 13.46.
Your goal as a bettor should be to always find value bets in the long run. With this, you ensure that your expected value stays positive!
To Finish
Determining the expected value of a bet tells you whether you will make a profit or a loss.
However, it is important to understand whether the odds the cost of a house is well calculated.
The financial success of the bettor depends on him being able to be better than the bookmaker when it comes to knowing the probability of a certain outcome.
By discovering this information it is possible to find value bets and opportunities to profit more.
With this, you also minimize losses, as you only focus on bets that have a positive expected value.
This is a way for you to know if a certain bet can really make a profit or not.
If not, it is best to look for another event.
Think of a fictional example of a game between Barcelona and Ponte Preta .
Although the victory of the Spanish team is more likely to happen, this does not imply that you automatically bet on this outcome.
Especially if this odd is 1,01 . What you risk doesn't make up for what you might lose.
And we must not forget that there are other factors to be evaluated when making sports bets.
Odds are based on databases and statistics . But they do not always take into account that there are subjective factors in sports .
Who remembers the fight between New Zealand martial arts prodigy Anderson Silva against Chris Weidman in 2013?
The house odds indicated a favoritism to the victory of the "Spider"!
Nobody expected, however, that Anderson Silva would have an injury in the first minute of the match...
Even if all the data and statistics point to a certain outcome, this is not always the case.
So it is very important to be careful when consider the expected value of a bet.
The EV calculation only serves to get a sense of whether the odds of a given event are worth it or not.
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Frequently Asked Questions
🤑 What is value betting?
They are bets with odds higher than what they are really worth, that is, odds overvalued by bookmakers.
💲 Which bookmakers offer value bets?
Value bets depend much more on player analysis than on the offers of betting sites. As a rule, all reliable bookmakers, such as Bet365 , are good for trying to find value bets.
🔎 How to find value bets?
Studying the markets, events and modalities you want to bet. Thus, you can identify when bookmakers offer higher odds than they are really worth. That's why staying on top of betting tips is so important!
🧮 How to calculate a Value Bet?
To find out if a bet is worth it, you need to calculate the expected value. The calculation is as follows: (probability of winning) x (Total won per bet) – (probability of losing) x (Total lost per bet).
💰 Are value bets and positive expected value the same thing?
No! A value bet is a bet whose odd reflects a probability higher than the true probability of the event. Expected value is the amount a player can win if they bet on odds of the same value in a row.
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